How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Brandon Martin
Brandon Martin

A seasoned gaming journalist with over a decade of experience covering online casinos and betting trends.